The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. A 12-0 vote. Markets had this priced at 97%, so the decision itself was the most boring thing that happened all day.

Then the projections dropped. The median dot for the end of 2026 jumped to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. That flips the Fed's own implied path from a cut to a hike.

9 officials now pencil in at least one hike this year. 8 see no change. Just 1 still sees a cut.

This was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair.

Trump picked him to cut rates and has joked about suing him if he doesn't. Instead, Warsh's debut came stapled to the most hawkish projections in over a year.

He didn't submit a dot. He cut the policy statement to 130 words, 2/3 shorter than April's.

He stripped out forward guidance entirely and announced five task forces to overhaul how the Fed communicates, measures inflation, and manages its balance sheet.

The committee raised its inflation outlook to 3.6% headline and 3.3% core for 2026, up from 2.7% on both in March.

17 of 18 participants said the risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. None saw downside.

That's not a committee debating direction. They’re arguing about timing.

The 2-year yield spiked above 4.2%, its highest since February 2025.
The 10-year hit 4.5%. Futures repriced a hike by October.

For two years the market ran on one assumption: rates only go down from here. The dot plot now says otherwise. The rate-sensitive corners that got comfortable on easing expectations are staring at a world where the next move might be up.

Cash and short-duration Treasuries are paying north of 4% to sit still.

That's the quietest position in the market right now.

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SpaceX briefly passed Microsoft in market cap. But that was last week and things had changed.

Big Tech sold off on Monday. Something else quietly hit an all-time milestone. It's the index of companies nobody was paying attention to.

How far has gold fallen since January? It was above $5,300 an ounce. The ceasefire talks, the Hormuz reopening, and a possible rate hike are all pulling in the same direction.

Inflation just hit a three-year high. Energy is up 23.5% over the past year, but the new Fed chair isn’t really aligned with data.

The moment the U.S.-Iran peace framework was signed on June 18, crude started unwinding and hasn't stopped.

Brent fell below $70 a barrel this week, its lowest since before the war began February 28.

From the wartime peak, oil has dropped roughly 40%.

The war premium that had traders bracing for $120 crude evaporated in a few weeks.

The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of the world's oil supply before the conflict. Iran's closure created an estimated daily shortfall of 14 million barrels.

Now tankers are moving through with their tracking signals on.

The UAE is exporting at roughly 85% of pre-war levels.
The U.S. issued a 60-day license authorizing purchases of Iranian crude.

Brent's prompt spread flipped into contango for the first time since the war started. That's the gap between current futures contracts and ones further out, and when it flips, it means traders think supply is coming back.

But the market isn't just pricing peace. It's pricing the full reopening before it's happened.

Airlines, truckers, shippers, and the consumer at the gas pump are all getting relief.

The biggest winner might be the Fed: that 23.5% year-over-year energy inflation number driving CPI to a three years high starts to cool if oil stays here.

The losers are louder.

The energy sector (XLE) was last week's worst performer.

The stocks that ran on supply disruption have nothing to run on if the disruption ends.

And they're now priced for peace to hold.
If it doesn't and Hormuz traffic thins again, crude goes back above $100 fast.

The ceasefire is a week old. The market is trading it like it's been a year.

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A quick follow-up on a name we put in front of you.

When we first flagged Spectral Capital (ticker FCCN), it was trading around $2.04.
As of this afternoon, it's $3.90.

That's +91% in five days.

Spectral announced its intention to uplist to the Nasdaq. That's when a company moves off the smaller over-the-counter market (where shares trade directly between brokers instead of on a big exchange) and onto a major one like the Nasdaq.

Why traders care: an uplisting can bring more exposure, better credibility with analysts, and easier liquidity (how simply shares can be bought and sold).

The market often re-rates a company when that door opens. That's the bet being made right now.

FCCN is a small OTC stock. It's been as low as $1.60 in the past year, and a stock that runs 91% in a week can hand it back just as fast. An "intention" to uplist is not a done deal.

We're showing you this because the call has worked so far, not because the story is over.

We're going live tomorrow at 10:00 AM EST to walk through how an uplisting works, where Spectral stands, and to take your questions.

We run it every weekday (Monday to Friday), so pick whichever day fits.

→ [Reserve your spot for tomorrow's 10 AM EST call]

The call was right this week.
The real work is figuring out whether the story holds.

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(by feargreedmeter)

Source: Stock Analysis