The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets today and tomorrow.

Markets are pricing a 100% chance of a hold at 3.5%–3.75%, the third straight pause of 2026.

No drama on the rate decision. All the drama is everywhere else.

This is almost certainly Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair; his term expires May 15.

The Senate Banking Committee votes on Warsh Wednesday.

Polymarket has him at 99%.
$43M in volume.

Powell took the chair in 2018 and held it through:

He leaves with inflation at 3.3% (above target for five straight years) and a labor market that's stable but soft.

March payrolls: 178,000.
Unemployment: 4.26%.

Not a crisis, not a boom.

A Fed that ran out of easy answers and a chair who ran out of time.

Wednesday's press conference will come down to two questions:

Warsh used the phrase at his confirmation hearing.

He promised to overhaul Fed communications, refused to commit to keeping press conferences, and declined to guarantee independence from political pressure on rates.

Goldman expects no cuts in 2026.
JPMorgan sees a possible hike in Q3 2027.
Bank of America still expects two cuts this year.

Core PCE is tracking 3.45% for March, up from 2.8% in February.
Supercore is above 4% annualized.

The spread between those forecasts tells you how much clarity this transition is providing.

Powell's last press conference is a valedictory, not a policy signal.

The real question is whether the Fed Warsh inherits still operates the same way.

And based on everything he said under oath, it won't.

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A 175-year-old wire transfer company is launching a stablecoin to bypass SWIFT. Stock is at $8.90. Nobody has them as a fintech name. Yet.

A cable giant just had its worst day ever. 120,000 broadband customers gone in a quarter. Where did they go?

One of Musk's companies is burning $25 billion this year. And still beat earnings.

A sandwich chain went from $8 billion to $12 billion in 17 months.
The IPO filing just dropped. Guess which PE firm is cashing out.

Mortgage rates just did something they haven't done in three springs. Homebuyers are already reacting.

Silver is at $75. A year ago it was $33.
It hit an all-time high of $121 in January and has pulled back 34%.

Gold cleared $4,700.

Goldman Sachs is telling clients silver could average $85–$100 in 2026.
And calling it the primary strategic metal of the green energy transition.

That's not goldbug language.
That's a commodities desk talking to institutions.

The global silver market will run its sixth straight annual supply deficit in 2026:
46.3 million ounces short, 15% more than last year.

Solar consumed 160 million ounces in 2025 alone.
EV and AI data center demand is structural, not cyclical.

JPMorgan's forecast puts the annual average at $81.
Citi has a second-half target of $110.

If gold reaches Goldman's $5,400 year-end target and the gold-silver ratio compresses from 64 to its historical average of 55, silver hits $98.

Above its January high.

The pullback wasn't random.
Higher-for-longer rates weigh on non-yielding metals.

Profit-taking after a 144% annual gain was inevitable.

And silver's dual identity — industrial metal and precious metal — means a global slowdown hits it from both sides.

The Fed transition matters here.

If Warsh cuts faster, the gold-silver ratio historically compresses sharply during easing cycles. It's the strongest setup for silver outperformance.

If rates stay elevated, the thesis takes longer.

Goldman and JPMorgan are betting on the former.
The supply deficit says they might be right.

The rate environment says it won't be a straight line.

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Four of the Magnificent Seven report today.

Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon — all after the close.
Apple follows tomorrow.

Combined, these five companies represent more than a quarter of the S&P 500 by weight. A single surprise can move the index.

The number everyone is watching: $700 billion.

That's roughly what the top five hyperscalers have guided in 2026 capex, most of it AI infrastructure.

Meta alone is at $115–$135 billion.
Alphabet guided $175–$185 billion.
Amazon is near $200 billion.
Microsoft's last quarter clocked $29.9 billion in capex.

Three months ago, these figures sent the market into an overbuilding panic.

Since then, the mood has shifted.

Compute shortages are still real, newer models are driving demand, and the stocks have ripped. In a single month:

Mag 7 aggregate Q1 earnings are projected to grow about 20% on 22% revenue growth.

The numbers that matter tonight aren't top-line — they're cloud growth rates.

Azure was at 39% last quarter.
AWS hit 24%, its fastest in 13 quarters.
Google Cloud was at 48%.

If those accelerate, the $700 billion looks like investment.
If they stall, it looks like a bill.

Microsoft is the odd one out.
Down 12% year-to-date while the rest rallied.

Before the Mag 7 even reported, a chip company most people have never heard of jumped 84% in a single day last week.

MaxLinear's infrastructure revenue surged 136% year-over-year.

That's data center connectivity hardware.
Simply the plumbing behind every hyperscaler buildout.

It's not just about chips.

Spectral Capital (OTCQB: FCCN), a deep tech company with 400+ patentable innovations in AI and quantum computing, is on track for $450M in 2026 revenue.

The stock trades at $2.25.

When a $2 billion chipmaker and a sub-$3 OTC name are both surging on infrastructure demand, it tells you where the $700 billion is actually going.

Tonight we find out if the companies writing the checks agree.

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(by feargreedmeter)

Source: Stock Analysis