THE FED PLAYBOOK

15 SEPTEMBER 2026

DON'T MAKE
THE ENTIRE BET
BEFORE THE FED

Illustrated Federal Reserve building and rates dial

Wednesday is not one decision. It is three pieces of information: the rate move, the language, and the path that follows.

WHAT THE MARKET IS PRICING IN

~92%	probability of a 25 bp hike

The surprise is no longer just whether the Fed hikes. The surprise is what Chair Kevin Warsh says about the next move.

3.4%

August CPI

5.0%

10Y Treasury touched

$108+

Brent crude

The one sentence to remember

The rate move matters. The message matters more.

At 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, the Fed publishes the decision. At 2:30 p.m., Warsh explains it. In those 30 minutes, the market will try to decide whether this is a one-time adjustment, the start of a new tightening cycle, or a signal that the Fed is still willing to wait.

WHAT HAPPENS WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY: THE MARKET WILL READ BETWEEN THE LINES

Do not watch only the rate. Watch the words that define the next meeting.

2:00 PM ET — DECISION

2:30 PM ET — WARSH PRESS CONFERENCE

The market will ask four questions

Was the hike expected?

If yes, the move itself may be old news.

Is inflation still “too high”?

That suggests policy may stay restrictive.

Does Warsh leave the door open?

Words like “further adjustment” change the next-meeting odds.

Does he sound worried about growth?

That can soften the impact of a hike.

Why the first market move can be wrong

Algorithms react to the statement in seconds. Human investors react to the press conference. A stock index can move sharply at 2:00 p.m. and reverse by 2:45 p.m. because the meaning of the decision changes as Warsh answers questions.

WAIT FOR THE MESSAGE,
NOT THE HEADLINE

SCENARIO MAP

IF THE FED SAYS THIS…
HERE IS WHAT
MAY HAPPEN

Three messages. Three very different market reactions.

Three-way signpost for the Fed scenarios

DOVISH HIKE

SCENARIO A — ONE HIKE, THEN PATIENCE

The Fed hikes 25 bp, but Warsh emphasizes that future moves depend on data. This is the market-friendly version of a hike. Yields can stabilize and quality growth can recover after the first shock.

LIKELY RELATIVE WINNERS

Large-cap tech • semis • quality growth

HAWKISH HIKE

SCENARIO B — INFLATION IS STILL THE PROBLEM

The Fed hikes and signals that more tightening may be needed. That keeps real rates high and raises the discount rate investors apply to future earnings.

LIKELY RELATIVE WINNERS

Energy • banks • cash-generators

SURPRISE HOLD

SCENARIO C — WE ARE NOT READY TO HIKE

The Fed holds or sounds unexpectedly cautious. Bonds may rally and rate-sensitive stocks can jump — but investors will immediately ask whether the reason is better inflation or weaker growth.

LIKELY RELATIVE WINNERS

Rate-sensitive growth • small caps

Important: These are scenario tendencies, not guaranteed one-day outcomes.

www.theinvestorcall.com

WHERE CAPITAL MAY HIDE

THE ENERGY ANGLE:
WHEN THE PROBLEM BECOMES THE HEDGE

Oil is helping create the inflation problem. That makes energy exposure different from the rest of the market.

EXXON MOBIL — XOM

If the Fed is forced to stay restrictive because oil and inflation remain elevated, energy can behave differently from long-duration growth. Exxon is not a “Fed trade.” It is a cash-producing business tied to the very commodity pressure complicating monetary policy.

•

Oil stays high

Inflation pressure

→

Inflation persists

Fed stays tighter

→

Rates stay high

Growth valuations compress

What we would watch after the Fed

If yields rise again

Energy + financials deserve more attention.

If yields fall

Quality growth gets breathing room.

If oil stays > $100

Energy remains a strategic portfolio counterweight.

If oil reverses sharply

The inflation hedge thesis weakens.

The idea is not “sell tech, buy oil.”

The idea is to own exposures that do not depend on the same macro outcome.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

THE TRADE
AFTER THE TRADE

Conceptual optical-interconnect module with light channels

The Fed controls the mood for hours. Structural trends control businesses for years.

OTCQB • PALX

PALOMINO LABORATORIES

A speculative AI-infrastructure name working on MicroLED optical interconnects. The investment question is not “Will the Fed like it?” The question is whether customer testing turns into development contracts and, eventually, revenue.

Three milestones that matter more than Wednesday

01

Customer validation

Do prototype results continue to meet or exceed targets?

02

Development contract

Does testing convert into a commercial relationship?

03

Commercialization

Can the technology move from prototype to scalable revenue?

OUR PLAYBOOK

BEFORE 2:00 PM

Keep flexibility. Do not make the entire bet.

2:00–3:00 PM

Read the statement. Listen to the press conference.

AFTER THE DUST

Buy the thesis — not the first candle.

Understand the market.
Then make the move.

Sources: Federal Reserve calendar; Financial Times; Barron’s. Market data as of Sept. 14, 2026.

This publication is for information and education only and is not personalized investment advice.

Research that matters. Insight you can trust.

THE FED PLAYBOOK — DON'T MAKE THE ENTIRE BET BEFORE THE FED

DON'T MAKE
THE ENTIRE BET
BEFORE THE FED

~92%

3.4%

5.0%

$108+

The rate move matters. The message matters more.

WEDNESDAY: THE MARKET WILL READ BETWEEN THE LINES

The market will ask four questions

Why the first market move can be wrong

WAIT FOR THE MESSAGE,
NOT THE HEADLINE

IF THE FED SAYS THIS…
HERE IS WHAT
MAY HAPPEN

SCENARIO A — ONE HIKE, THEN PATIENCE

SCENARIO B — INFLATION IS STILL THE PROBLEM

SCENARIO C — WE ARE NOT READY TO HIKE

THE ENERGY ANGLE:
WHEN THE PROBLEM BECOMES THE HEDGE

EXXON MOBIL — XOM

What we would watch after the Fed

The idea is not “sell tech, buy oil.”

THE TRADE
AFTER THE TRADE

PALOMINO LABORATORIES

Three milestones that matter more than Wednesday

01

02

03

OUR PLAYBOOK

Understand the market.
Then make the move.

Keep Reading

THE FED PLAYBOOK — DON'T MAKE THE ENTIRE BET BEFORE THE FED

DON'T MAKETHE ENTIRE BETBEFORE THE FED

~92%

3.4%

5.0%

$108+

The rate move matters. The message matters more.

WEDNESDAY: THE MARKET WILL READ BETWEEN THE LINES

The market will ask four questions

Why the first market move can be wrong

WAIT FOR THE MESSAGE,NOT THE HEADLINE

IF THE FED SAYS THIS…HERE IS WHATMAY HAPPEN

SCENARIO A — ONE HIKE, THEN PATIENCE

SCENARIO B — INFLATION IS STILL THE PROBLEM

SCENARIO C — WE ARE NOT READY TO HIKE

THE ENERGY ANGLE:WHEN THE PROBLEM BECOMES THE HEDGE

EXXON MOBIL — XOM

What we would watch after the Fed

The idea is not “sell tech, buy oil.”

THE TRADEAFTER THE TRADE

PALOMINO LABORATORIES

Three milestones that matter more than Wednesday

01

02

03

OUR PLAYBOOK

Understand the market.Then make the move.

Keep Reading

DON'T MAKE
THE ENTIRE BET
BEFORE THE FED

WAIT FOR THE MESSAGE,
NOT THE HEADLINE

IF THE FED SAYS THIS…
HERE IS WHAT
MAY HAPPEN

THE ENERGY ANGLE:
WHEN THE PROBLEM BECOMES THE HEDGE

THE TRADE
AFTER THE TRADE

Understand the market.
Then make the move.