SpaceX prices its IPO after the bell tonight and starts trading on Nasdaq Friday morning under the ticker SPCX.

The number: a $1.75 trillion valuation at $135 per share, looking to raise as much as $75 billion. That's more than double the largest IPO ever done.

And here's the part worth sitting with:

Musk is reportedly handing up to 30% of the shares to retail investors.

The normal cut for regular people in a hot deal is 5% to 10%. He's tripling it.

SpaceX did $18.5 billion in revenue last year and still lost close to $5 billion. Most of that red ink came from absorbing xAI, Musk's AI company, which SpaceX bought in February.

So one ticket gets you a rocket company, a satellite internet provider, and an AI startup, priced like all three already won.

Starlink is the real engine.

It's about 58% of revenue, roughly $10 billion in sales and $6 billion in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) last year.

The launch business makes the headlines. The subscriptions pay the bills.

When insiders hand retail an unusually large slice of an IPO this size, it's worth asking what the structure is actually doing.

Retail demand props up the price on day one.
A $1.75 trillion sticker leaves a lot of room to fall before the people who got in at the seed round feel a thing.

The early money has been in since 2002. That’s 24 years of compounding at private market valuations, and now the public gets to set the next price.

Starlink is a genuinely good business.
The valuation is a bet that it stays perfect while the company loses billions integrating an AI lab nobody asked to be part of the deal.

The 30% tells you which side of this trade the existing holders want to be on.

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This CEO told investors that a key client relationship was going great. The client sent a termination notice. The stock lost 70% in a day. The CEO is gone.

The Supreme Court killed Trump's tariffs in February. Still his trade office is proposing new duties on 60 countries. Three words: morality masking protectionism.

Mortgage rates finally "dropped" this week. They were even lower in January. Then a war started and oil crossed $90.

What’s happening to the ceasefire? Israel and Iran just traded their worst strikes in months. Trump told Netanyahu he'd be fighting alone if it continues.

The FIFA World Cup kicks off today across the US, Canada, and Mexico: 104 matches, most of them on American soil, for the first time since 1994.

FIFA says the tournament could add $17.2 billion to US GDP. Deutsche Bank ran the math and called it a rounding error, about 0.05% of GDP.

Both things are true at the same time.

The tournament won't move the economy. It'll move specific stocks.

The question is whether anyone's early enough to benefit.

Deutsche Bank's buy list runs through the full service hotel REITs (real estate investment trusts) near stadiums: Host Hotels, Ryman Hospitality, DiamondRock, Park Hotels.

They're projecting 50 to 75 basis points of RevPAR lift (revenue per available room) in host cities.

Fox owns the English language rights to all 104 matches, 40 of them in primetime. That's an $850 million advertising haul.

Adidas is the official partner and makes the match ball.
Goldman calls it the best positioned sportswear name.

The fun one:
Sweetgreen has 49% of its locations near host stadiums. Shake Shack, 34%.

Add Cava, Wingstop, McDonald's, and Starbucks for the international tourist traffic.

FanDuel and DraftKings split most of a projected $3.3 billion betting handle.

The reality: most of this was already priced in by March.
The hotel REITs and Fox didn't discover the World Cup last week.

The gap is between names with real, measurable exposure and names that show up in every listicle and shrug it off by September.

Sweetgreen at 49% of units near stadiums is a different story than Starbucks existing in every American city.

$6.4 billion in projected tourist spending hits over the summer and then the planes fly home.

World Cup RevPAR lifts tend to fade by fall. The tourists arrive in June.

The stocks usually arrived in March.

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The economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 80,000.

More than double the forecast, with upward revisions to prior months on top. April was revised up to +179,000.

Traders who'd been pricing in summer relief from the Fed spent Friday repricing in the other direction.

Unemployment held steady at 4.3%.
Average hourly wages rose 0.3% to $37.53.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.53%.

The June 16–17 Fed meeting is now a near certain hold. Goldman shifted its call to no cuts at all in 2026 and sees the Fed dropping its "easing bias" language entirely.

Read that backwards.
A market that spent months debating how many cuts it would get is now debating whether the next move is a hike.

Odds of a Fed rate increase by end of the year: around 70%.

This all lands on new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's desk three weeks into the job.

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee, the group that sets interest rates) meets next week with a labor market that just told them the economy doesn't need help.

A hot labor market.
Oil above $90 on the Iran war.
Sticky inflation, with Polymarket pricing a 90% chance it stays above 3.5%.

That's stagflation.

Strong employment, rising prices, and an energy shock all at once. The last time those three showed up together was in the 1970s.

Higher-for-longer rates are rough for anything that runs on cheap money: long duration tech, unprofitable growth names, anyone needing to refinance soon. Meanwhile, cash is yielding above 4% and short duration bonds look like the adults in the room.

The cruel part: a strong labor market is exactly what everyone says they want. It's also exactly what's keeping rates pinned and mortgages stuck near 6.5%.

Good news for workers.
Bad news for anyone waiting for the Fed to rescue their portfolio.

That rescue isn't coming this summer.

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(by feargreedmeter)

Source: Stock Analysis