SpaceX filed its S-1 on May 20. Under the code of SPCX, dual-listed on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas, underwriters included: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America.

It’s not a great deal, just the biggest U.S. IPO after Alibaba in 2014, at $22 billion.

The company’s target valuation: $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Target raise: $40 billion to $80 billion.

Roadshow starts on June 8. Pricing window: late June.

2025 consolidated revenue: $18.7 billion.

Starlink itself did $11.4 billion of that, up nearly 50% year over year, with $4.4 billion in segment operating income, 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, and roughly 9,600 satellites in orbit.

The consolidated company also posted an operating loss of $2.6 billion. Starship R&D ate $3 billion last year.

The AI segment (from the xAI acquisition) generated $3.2 billion in revenue, but spent $12.7 billion on R&D in 2025 alone.

When you buy a stock, you normally get a vote. One share, one vote. That's how it works at most companies.

SpaceX is not most companies.

Class A shares (public) get one vote. Class B shares (Musk) get TEN.

Musk owns 12.3% of Class A and 93.6% of Class B. That’s 85.1% of total voting power.

He'll serve as CEO, CTO, and chairman.

For comparison:
Zuckerberg holds 61% voting power at Meta. Buffett holds 35% at Berkshire.

SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.

The breakdown:
$370 billion in space; $1.6 trillion in connectivity; $26.5 trillion in AI.

The businesses generating actual revenue today represent under 7% of the number being sold to investors. The filing concedes several target markets, including orbital manufacturing and asteroid mining (these don't even exist yet).

SpaceX also plans to deploy orbital AI compute satellites starting in 2028 and has signed a cloud services deal with Anthropic worth $1.25 billion per month through May 2029.

At roughly 110x trailing revenue, SpaceX would list at a multiple higher than any major public tech company. Saudi Aramco, the previous record-holder IPO, traded below its IPO price for years.

Retail gets access at the same price as institutions through Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and E*Trade, which is unusual for a listing this size.

The question the filing leaves open is:
Where does the capital for the AI buildout come from?

The company is already operating at a loss.
AI R&D spend is accelerating.
And the share issuance and borrowing needed to fund orbital compute could weigh on public shareholders who thought they were buying Starlink.

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The new Fed chair was sworn in somewhere other than at the Fed building. Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting is June 16.

Here’s how the Iran war is coming for your car. Since 44% of the base oil the U.S. uses comes from the Middle East, the closure of Hormuz cut that supply.

The NVIDIA rollercoaster: revenue, dividends, buybacks, and shares. Everything’s part of the ride.

Do you know what number inflation just hit? Experts say that even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, it's two months before anything normalizes.

Aren’t defense stocks supposed to rise? In this context, you’d probably wanna know what’s happening.

How much house can you afford this spring? Rates briefly touched the 5% range earlier this year. That feels like a long time ago.

This aviation company is gone. 17,000 employees. 34 years of flights. It couldn't survive a second bankruptcy once jet fuel prices spiked.

The Tip:
Braiin jumped 74% in ONE DAY this week after announcing a UK partnership with Switchcraft to power utility and telecom switching for renters and homeowners.

What they do:
It's an Australian AI company of three businesses under one roof:
Customer service automation, farm robotics, and property tech.

About 800 employees across 7 countries.
Revenue has grown 30%+ a year for three years straight.

Why We're Watching:
This is a speculative growth name, not a core holding. The 52-week range runs from $4 to $33, so wild swings come with the territory. If you believe AI-powered property tech is the next big thing, BRAI is one way to play it.

The Tip:
Gold pulled back hard the last few months.
The dollar got stronger, interest rates ticked up, and the chart looks ugly.
But here's what's actually happening behind the scenes:

Central banks are still buying. 244 TONNES in Q1 alone.

And the big banks aren't backing down on their forecasts.

Goldman says $5,400 by year-end.
UBS says $5,900.
Wells Fargo says $6,100 to $6,300.

They can argue about timing, but they agree on direction.

Why We're Watching:
Gold isn't a trade. It's insurance.

If BRAI shot at hitting it big, gold is what protects you when you're wrong.

A 5-10% slice in physical gold (GLD) or miners like GDX is the kind of position most investors don't have to think about every day.

NVIDIA reported on May 20.

Revenue: $81.6 billion, beating the consensus by $2.8 billion. Data Center: $39.1 billion, up 69%. EPS: $1.87 versus $1.76 expected. The dividend increased 25x. $80 billion buyback authorized.

And the stock closed down 0.9%.

At 30.5x forward earnings heading into the print, the bar wasn't "beat." It was "shock."

After three consecutive earnings reports, the stock has fallen.

The median stock move on the day after earnings is essentially flat. For AI infrastructure leaders, earnings day has become the moment investors sell to lock in gains, not the moment they buy.

Spectral Capital (OTCQB: FCCN) announced $328.5 million in Q1 2026 revenue. Gross profit: $2.2 million. Gross margin: 0.67%.

The revenue came from two telecom acquisitions: FortyTwo and Telvantis Voice Services.

The actual businesses are voice-routing and enterprise messaging. The company describes itself as focused on "artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and quantum computing."

Three counterparties represent 94% of Q1 revenue.

The 10-Q discloses a $49.6 million working capital deficit, a $9.4 million net loss, and "substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern."

Full-year guidance was raised to $700 million. The company is projecting profitability as "AI-enabled optimization expands margins."

When the actual AI infrastructure leader posts a near-doubling in revenue and the stock yawns, while an OTC telecom roll-up pulls $328 million on "quantum" branding and raises guidance:

The AI label has decoupled from AI economics.

Nvidia needs to shock Wall Street. Spectral only needs two letters.

The line between AI capex and AI cosplay has never been blurrier.

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Here's how you tell if Wall Street believes a war is ending: watch interest rates.

When investors feel safe, they accept lower returns on government bonds. When they're worried, they demand more.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% last week. Highest in 19 years.
The 10-year, which drives mortgage rates, jumped to 4.67%.

If a ceasefire were real, those numbers would be falling.

Oil says the same thing.

Crude dipped 6% on the framework news but still sits at $91 a barrel. Before the war: high $60s.

It’s been more than 80 days since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28.

Last weekend Trump posted that a deal was "largely negotiated." The framework: a 60-day ceasefire extension while the Strait of Hormuz gets de-mined and reopened.

Pakistan is mediating.

The bigger items: Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, reconstruction.

Trump didn't mention the nuclear part. Iran's state media responded the same day: the Strait stays under Iranian control.

The IEA (the global oil market watchdog) says cumulative supply losses exceed 1 billion barrels.

That doesn't restart with a signature. Refineries, shipping, insurance, fuel pricing — all need months.

Even motor oil is breaking: 44% of U.S. base oil comes from the Middle East, and wholesale prices spiked $5 a gallon this year.

Framework holds: Gas prices drop. Airlines get relief. Shipping normalizes.

Framework collapses: Oil companies keep printing. Tanker stocks stay elevated. Dollar strengthens.

Either way: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is nearly drained.

97% odds on Polymarket it falls to 400 million barrels by June 5.

Defense stocks are already paying the peace premium early:

Raytheon down 11%; Lockheed down 13%; The defense ETF down 12% since March; The S&P is up 3.5%.

Inflation hit 3.8%. Gas up 28%. Real wages fell.

Even the optimists say two months to normalize after Hormuz reopens.

Someone's about to be wrong.

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(by feargreedmeter)

Source: Stock Analysis