The weekend’s escalation in Venezuela culminated in U.S. forces capturing Nicolás Maduro and renewed talks to export Venezuelan oil.

Despite all the drama, it didn’t crater markets.

Instead, it went the other way: risk assets rallied, energy names climbed and a niche Venezuela-focused ETF filing lit up investor imaginations.

What looked like a geopolitical shock turned into a risk-on reflation trade with a distinct energy tilt.

As a result, the U.S. signaled it will allow up to $2B in Venezuelan crude exports to U.S. ports, likely redirecting barrels from China.

Bullish:

Not bullish:

The market didn’t read Venezuela as a crisis. It read it as a door opening.

That’s why stocks rose, oil fell, and an ETF got filed.

Not fear. Opportunity.

And that tells you exactly how investors are wired right now.

Chip stocks are back in the spotlight. The semiconductor sector is closing in on its first monthly high in a while, powered by a surprise comeback from long-lagging analog chipmakers.

Fed minutes show policymakers are in no rush to move, preferring to keep interest rates parked where they are for now. With inflation still not fully behaving, the Fed is sticking to a cautious, wait-it-out approach.

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Gold had one of its best years in modern history. Ray Dalio says that’s not a flex, but a warning. Not because gold is “winning,” but because measuring everything in dollars might be lying to us.

Stocks looked strong in 2025. But when you measure them against gold instead of dollars, the picture flips. Suddenly the “rally” looks more like inflation in cosplay.

Dalio’s point is we don’t actually know what’s real anymore.

That’s because if your unit of account is quietly melting (the dollar), “up” stops meaning much. And there’s no clean way to know that in real time.

There’s a popular framing that a weaker dollar is a slow-burn wealth tax. Maybe.

But even that assumes the dollar’s decline is locked in.

It’s not.

Besides, the dollar isn’t just money. It’s power.

And with Trump back in the mix, expect aggressive attempts of all kinds to defend that power.

Will it work? No idea.

And that’s the point.

Source: Stock Analysis

So imagine your whole class gets obsessed with a new glitter pen. ✍️
Everyone wants one.
Everyone trades their snacks for one.
People say things like “glitter pens will change the world.”

🤔 Then someone notices…
It’s still just a pen.

People stop caring.
Prices drop.
The magic vibe disappears.