THE BIG TECH BREAKUP - SIX YEARS LATER
Editorial analysis. Market data through September 2, 2026 close. Not personalized investment advice. |
THE BREAK
WHAT INTEL IS TODAY PC + EDGE Core Ultra / Panther Lake / robotics DATA CENTER Xeon 6+ / hyperscaler demand FOUNDRY 18A / 18A-P / 14A roadmap The strategic shift is simple: Intel no longer wants to win only by selling Intel-designed CPUs. It wants to manufacture advanced chips for others as well - a model that puts it closer to the territory dominated by TSMC and Samsung. The irony? Apple helped expose the weakness - |
THE NUMBERS The top line finally has |
77.9 | 79.0 | 63.1 | 54.2 | 53.1 | 52.9 |
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
$16.1B Q2 2026 REVENUE +25% YOY | $6.3B DATA CENTER + AI +59% YOY | $5.8B INTEL FOUNDRY +31% YOY |
Q2 2026 operating picture
| Client + Physical AI | $8.9B | +13% |
| Data Center + AI | $6.3B | +59% |
| Intel Foundry | $5.8B | +31% |
| Consolidated operating income | $1.80B | vs. -$3.18B YoY |
THE STOCK The stock collapsed first. |
$46.47 SEP 2020 | $23.46 SEP 2024 | $90.05 SEP 2, 2026 |
WHAT THE PRICE IS SAYING
+93.8% approx. price gain vs. Sep 2020 reference | 11.7% approx. six-year annualized gain | ~3.8x vs. Sep 2024 reference |
THE INVESTMENT CASE This is no longer |
BULL CASE 18A works Intel restores process credibility. DCAI accelerates Q2 revenue +59% YoY. Foundry scales A second engine beyond CPUs. U.S. strategic value Domestic advanced manufacturing matters. | RISK CASE Valuation Forward P/E ~54x is demanding. Foundry losses Q2 foundry operating loss: $2.09B. External customers 14A needs real third-party volume. Execution risk A great roadmap is not the same as margins. |
The core question is not: |  |
54x FORWARD P/E APPROX. | $2.09B FOUNDRY Q2 LOSS IMPROVED YOY |
THE VERDICT Is Intel a buy at $90?
We would not call Intel an obvious bargain after its enormous rerating. Q2 2026 shows exactly why the market is excited: revenue grew 25%, Data Center + AI grew 59%, Foundry revenue rose 31%, and consolidated operating income returned to positive territory. But valuation is the brake. At roughly 54x forward earnings and more than 8x sales, investors are paying today for tomorrow's foundry economics. That makes Intel investable for a long-term, higher-risk portfolio - but less attractive as a momentum chase after the stock's rapid run.
Apple left Intel. |
